As global instability dominates international headlines and the United States adopts an increasingly assertive posture on the world stage, a somber question from the mid-twentieth century has resurfaced: who would be called to serve if a major conflict required reinstating the draft? While the U.S. has relied on an all-volunteer force for over fifty years, the legal and administrative infrastructure of the Selective Service System remains dormant but fully functional, ready to be activated by an act of Congress and a presidential signature.
To understand the stakes of a modern draft, historical precedent is instructive. During the Vietnam War, between 1964 and 1973, roughly 1.8 million men were conscripted. The human cost was staggering: 17,671 draftees died in combat. This history serves as a haunting backdrop for today’s discussions, emphasizing that the risks to conscripts mirror those faced by volunteers. Although the last induction orders were issued on June 30, 1973, the requirement for young men to register has never fully disappeared.
Under current federal law, nearly all male U.S. citizens and male immigrants—regardless of legal status—must register with the Selective Service within 30 days of their eighteenth birthday. Late registration is permitted until age twenty-six, but non-compliance carries severe consequences. Failing to register is a felony punishable by fines up to $250,000 and five years in prison. Beyond legal penalties, it can bar individuals from federal student aid, government-sponsored job training, and many public-sector careers. For immigrants, it can delay citizenship proceedings by five years. This registration forms the master list from which any future draft would draw.
If a global crisis escalated to a level requiring World War III mobilization, the reinstatement mechanism is structured and rapid. Congress would first amend the Military Selective Service Act to authorize the president to begin conscription. Once activated, the Selective Service System transitions from data collection to operations, with the centerpiece being the national draft lottery.
The lottery is designed as a transparent, high-stakes public event, likely live-streamed nationwide. Birthdates are drawn at random to establish induction priority. The primary cohort targeted is those turning twenty within the calendar year of the lottery. If the military’s personnel needs are not met, the lottery expands incrementally to ages twenty-one through twenty-six. Eighteen- and nineteen-year-olds are only called once the older groups are exhausted.
Once a lottery number is drawn, a rapid transition begins. The individual is ordered to report to a Military Entrance Processing Station (MEPS), undergoing physical, mental, and moral evaluations to determine fitness. In peacetime, strict standards govern health, education, and criminal history, but military experts warn that in large-scale conflict, manpower needs can override typical disqualifiers.
A former Army combat medic noted that, under desperate circumstances, exemptions may vanish. Overweight individuals or those failing standard fitness tests could still be drafted and put through intensive training. Those without high school diplomas or with misdemeanor and certain felony records could be inducted under “moral waivers” if personnel shortages are severe. The Selective Service aims to deliver the first group of inductees to the Department of Defense within just 193 days of a legal authorization.
A modern point of debate is the gender-specific nature of the draft. Currently, only men must register. Though there have been legislative discussions about including women—reflecting their service in all combat roles—no law has been enacted. As it stands, a future conscripted force would be composed entirely of young men.
The possibility of a draft is no longer theoretical. With tensions simmering in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific, national service is a renewed topic of concern. The Selective Service System acts as an “insurance policy” for national defense, able to scale the U.S. military from hundreds of thousands to millions within months. While the United States currently depends on a professional volunteer force, the legal framework for a draft remains in place, ready to transform a generation of twenty-year-olds into the next wave of American defenders. Whether for deterrence or mobilization, the order of precedence is clear, and for those aged eighteen to twenty-five, the lottery of birthdays remains the defining variable in their future should global conflict erupt.