The order landed like a political bomb, exploding through Washington and the Americas with immediate shockwaves. In one decisive stroke, Trump declared Cuba a “national emergency” threat, signaling to the world that the U.S. was taking a bold and aggressive stance. At the same time, he quietly armed himself with a powerful economic weapon capable of reaching beyond the island—able to target Mexico, Russia, and any other nation that continues to keep Havana’s lights on. International allies are furious, viewing the move as reckless and destabilizing. Cuba, already teetering on the edge of economic and social collapse, now faces the looming threat of intensified isolation. And on top of that, a complex tariff war tied to oil, migration, and potential regime change is poised to erupt, threatening to reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Trump’s new executive order doesn’t merely target Havana in isolation; it weaponizes Cuba’s last remaining lifeline, turning energy into leverage in an unprecedented way. By threatening punitive tariffs on any country that sells oil to the island, Washington is sending a stark message: even acts of humanitarian assistance could carry a steep economic cost in the U.S. market. Mexico, which has become Cuba’s primary oil supplier following previous restrictions, finds itself caught in a perilous crossfire. As a USMCA partner, Mexico is forced into an impossible choice: uphold regional solidarity and risk a confrontation with its largest trading partner, or comply with U.S. pressure and potentially betray broader diplomatic ties. The stakes for Mexico are enormous, as its economy and international reputation hang in the balance.
For Cuba, the consequences are existential. Fuel shortages have already triggered rolling blackouts, paralyzed hospitals, and deepening hunger among the population. Everyday life is becoming increasingly desperate, and essential services are faltering. Supporters of the order argue that only maximum pressure can compel a regime intricately entwined with Russia, China, Iran, and various regional proxy networks to change its behavior. Critics counter that the approach crosses a moral line, punishing ordinary civilians in order to make a high-stakes geopolitical point. As U.S. agencies debate the limits of enforcement and how far to push economic sanctions, one reality emerges with stark clarity: this battle isn’t solely about Cuba’s oil supply. It represents a far larger test of how aggressively the “America First” doctrine will extend its influence across the hemisphere, and how far the U.S. is willing to project power in pursuit of its strategic objectives.